Can AI Help Us Understand What’s in Political Leaflets?

Leaflets have long been a staple of political campaigning, with parties investing countless hours and resources into distributing them to voters. But how much do we really know about the effectiveness of leaflets, and what can we learn from the content they contain? In a recent episode of the Campaign Lab podcast, Ricky, a member of the Campaign Lab community, shared insights into his project aimed at analysing the vast amounts of data found in political leaflets, using AI to reveal hidden patterns and trends.

The Motivation Behind Analysing Leaflets

Ricky’s involvement in the Campaign Lab stems from his desire to move beyond simply critiquing politics and instead become an active participant in finding solutions. With a background in data analysis and programming, Ricky found that the Campaign Lab provided an ideal space to apply his technical skills toward advancing progressive causes. His project is part of a larger effort to better understand the role of leaflets in political campaigns, particularly what topics are being discussed and how candidates frame their messages to voters.

The inspiration for the project builds on the work of Democracy Club, which has compiled a large database of political leaflets submitted by volunteers across the UK. Since 2014, this database has grown, containing images of leaflets from various elections. However, images alone don't provide the full picture. Ricky’s project aims to extract more meaningful data from these leaflets by using AI to analyse their content.

The Power of AI in Leaflet Analysis

Ricky’s approach uses the ChatGPT API, an advanced AI tool that can process both text and images. By feeding the leaflets into this AI system, he was able to extract structured data about the topics mentioned, direct quotes, the number of images used, and the tone of the messaging (positive or negative). The AI converts the image data into a readable format, allowing researchers to explore specific questions like how candidates talked about housing during the 2017 election or how immigration was framed in different constituencies in 2019.

This method allows Ricky and his team to analyse thousands of leaflets in a way that would be nearly impossible for humans to do manually. By categorising and structuring the data, they can track trends over time, compare how different candidates or parties approach certain topics, and even see how often local issues are emphasised. This analysis opens up new possibilities for understanding how political messaging evolves and what resonates with voters.

Why Focus on Leaflets?

The decision to focus on leaflets may seem surprising in the digital age, but as Ricky points out, leaflets remain one of the most widely interacted-with forms of political communication. Voters across the UK still expect to receive them, and many view a candidate's leaflet as a sign of their seriousness in the campaign. However, despite their prevalence, there’s little concrete data on their actual impact.

Ricky’s project aims to change that by providing insights into what kinds of messages are being conveyed in leaflets and how they relate to voter behavior. For example, by correlating certain topics with vote share in past elections, the team hopes to uncover whether certain issues are more effective in swaying voters. This analysis could help campaigners fine-tune their messaging and ensure that they’re making the most of their resources.

What Can We Learn From This Election?

With the next election approaching, Ricky is excited to see how his project might provide valuable insights. He notes that simply understanding what topics are being discussed is important for the health of civic democracy. By knowing what issues candidates are bringing to voters’ doorsteps, we can hold them accountable and ensure that important topics are not overlooked.

On a strategic level, the project could also reveal which topics are most salient in voters’ minds and whether mentioning certain issues correlates with increased vote share. While it’s difficult to draw definitive conclusions about the impact of leaflets—after all, politics is complex and multifaceted—the data from past elections may offer clues about what messaging strategies are most effective.

The Future of Leafleting

When asked whether he thinks leaflets will still be used in five years, Ricky is confident that they will remain a key part of political campaigns. Even if the data were to show that leaflets have little direct influence on voting behavior, he argues that they play an important symbolic role. Many voters expect to receive them and may even view the absence of a leaflet as a sign that a candidate isn’t taking the race seriously.

Ricky also acknowledges that political messaging is likely to evolve, especially if there’s a change in the party in power. The issues that dominate leaflets today may look very different in five years, depending on the political landscape and voter priorities. However, the inertia of traditional campaign methods means that leaflets are unlikely to disappear anytime soon.

The Role of AI in Understanding Campaigns

One of the key takeaways from Ricky’s project is the potential of AI to enhance our understanding of political campaigns. By using AI to analyse large datasets, like the leaflet archive, we can uncover patterns and trends that would be difficult to spot otherwise. Ricky sees this as just the beginning of how AI can be used to improve democratic engagement.

For example, AI could be used to track how well politicians’ speeches align with the issues that matter most to their constituents. This kind of analysis could help hold politicians accountable and ensure that voters’ voices are being heard. Ricky believes there’s a great opportunity to use AI to make politics more transparent and accessible, allowing individuals to see how their concerns are reflected in the actions of their elected representatives.

Conclusion: Leveraging Leaflet Data for Future Campaigns

Ricky’s project is an exciting example of how technology can be used to make political data more actionable. By analysing leaflets through AI, the Campaign Lab team is shedding light on one of the most traditional yet under-researched forms of political communication. This data could prove invaluable for future elections, helping campaigners understand what messages work best and how to connect with voters more effectively.

As political campaigns continue to evolve, tools like AI will play an increasingly important role in shaping strategies and making politics more transparent. For now, Ricky’s work on leaflets offers a glimpse of how even the oldest campaign tools can benefit from cutting-edge technology.