The shock of Trump's victory has provided us with a crucial moment for reflection on the state of modern politics. We are in a new era which demands a new kind of political playbook to counteract the populist politics of a newly energised right. Trump centred his campaign around anger at politicians and distrust in Washington. From cries of “swamp the vote” to “Too Big to Rig”, distrust and populism was core to the campaign. So how are progressives to respond? What might this tell us about the state of politics in the UK? Here are some insights from experiments that have been done over the last year which provide some indication of what a new playbook may look like.

1. Democracy is about everyone, including low turnout voters

Trump targeted low propensity voters by engaging people who don't typically participate in politics. This strategy led to predicted 44-year record turnout levels in 5 out of 7 swing states and large swings in his favour. While traditional campaigns typically avoid low propensity voters, Trump's campaign explicitly pursued them.

This approach has huge relevance for our own elections, as 2024 was the lowest turnout election since 2001. Among Britain's 20 lowest-turnout constituencies, where participation ranges from 40% in Manchester Rusholme to 46.2% in Barnsley South, Labour held 18 seats and won 2 more. In 18 of these seats, smaller parties placed second, with Reform UK taking second place in 8 constituencies.

In a volatile electorate, turnout becomes an unpredictable factor. Like Brexit and the 2019 election demonstrated, its impact can be destabilising. These voters when mobilised have the potential to completely redraw the electoral map. Progressives risk ignoring them at their own peril.

But identifying low-turnout voters isn't enough - we also need new approaches to build trust with them.

2. Go to where people are and connect with them on a hyperlocal level

The collapse in trust in national politics over the past decade is a fundamental shift in how citizens engage with democracy. Party loyalty is down, voter instability is up and both these factors mean politicians need to work harder to gain people’s votes. Our research has shown the path to restoring trust may run through the hyperlocal. Our experiments with Facebook advertising revealed a striking pattern: ads featuring local candidates and representatives consistently outperformed those showcasing national politicians. Similarly when issues were framed in a local way or pictures were taken of local landmarks, engagement soared. One small pilot we ran found that residents scanning QR codes on political leaflets all lived within 1km of the local issue discussed - showing the power of hyperlocal messaging.

The takeaway? Progressive actors need to root their efforts in local soil. The local level provides that crucial bridge between people, politics, and place – it's where abstract policies become tangible and mean something to people.

Furthermore, gone are the days when political organisations could expect people to come to them. Labour's innovative "digital doorknocking" initiative in local Facebook groups exemplifies a more effective approach – equipping and empowering party members to engage in meaningful political discussions within existing local online community spaces. At its height the programme was reaching thousands of local groups each day.

This strategy represents a fundamental shift from the traditional model where progressive organisations set up their own spaces and wait for people to arrive. The future of political engagement lies in joining the conversations already happening, whether they're in Facebook groups, local forums, or community WhatsApp chats. Progressive actors waste too much money waiting for people to come to them, instead of going to where people are already organising and talking.

Yet simply being present in these spaces isn't sufficient. The credibility of our message depends heavily on who delivers it.

3. The critical role of decentralised messengers

People inherently trust their friends and local connections more than official party communications. The Trump campaign used this to great effect, asking supporters to use a 10x the vote app. One Republican strategist said 40,000 volunteers were mobilised as “Trump Force 47 captains,” who were each charged with mobilising 25 low propensity voters — for a total reach of 1 million voters. As James Blair, the Trump campaign’s political director explains: “what is very impactful is personal contacts with voters who don’t reliably vote in every election that are more disconnected from the political process”.

Progressives need to learn how to better leverage relational campaigning methods. While Labour's efforts with relational campaigning through WhatsApp networks during the election show the right approach, this is just the beginning. But it goes deeper: the messenger fundamentally shapes the message. It’s not just the role of friendly messengers, it's also about their ability to create stronger messages.

Our grassroots and our volunteers are our most important asset. They are the eyes and ears of our community and they know best how to craft a message that lands. Our research shows when messages are crowdsourced rather than crafted as official lines, they prove more persuasive to target demographics. This effect amplifies when the message author shares characteristics with the intended audience.

Political parties need to decentralise their message carriers, allowing people to speak authentically in voices that resonate in their communities. People at the local level tell the most compelling stories about their own experiences. Personal narratives create deeper engagement than more formal messaging. The approach is simple but powerful: instead of sharing official lines about NHS crises, share your personal struggles with getting appointments. Rather than announcing museum funding, tell stories about taking your children there and why it matters.

4. Building better democratic feedback loops

Trump also won because people did not realise the bits of their lives that got better did so because of a Democratic government. While some of this is down to how the economy is faring at a meta level, there’s also a sense that visible improvements weren’t communicated to people. This is a valuable lesson for a new Labour government. With limited economic room to manoeuvre, Labour is going to have to demonstrate its impact through small but meaningful concrete local improvements in people’s lives. This means all ofour activists out on the doorsteps telling people locally tangible stories of how their area is improving thanks to a Labour government. To support this activity, we need to build the dataflows and structure the impact data of the government at a local level. Activists need to know about every new hospital funded, every new park created.

Trust isn't built during election season alone. Politics is an all-year game - we must constantly engage with people on issues that matter to them. Trust isn't built through one great act of faith, but through thousands of sustained acts of communication and delivery.

This isn't just about collecting data or communicating one way – it's about creating a living, breathing democratic process. From MPs' casework rates on different issues to doorstep feedback, we now have both the technology and relationships needed to build a new kind of politics. This presents Labour with a unique opportunity to establish a more responsive form of government.

When a community member reports rubbish in the local park, the response shouldn't just be action; it should be a complete communication loop: acknowledgment, action, and follow-up. Labour's experimentation with "persuasion pathways" showed promise in this, but we need to expand this beyond candidates and MPs. Every party member can and should be part of this ongoing dialogue with the community. It's about creating a continuous conversation rather than periodic campaign bursts.

This sustained engagement creates another crucial opportunity: gathering real-time feedback from communities. The Trump victory was undoubtedly a shock to many, but perhaps it shouldn't have been. A party truly in touch with its community and grassroots should be able to sense the signs well beyond what national polls suggest. Our doorstep conversations, canvassing efforts, and interactions in digital groups should all serve as rich systems of feedback that we can actively use and build upon. This is what democracy is really about – the feedback loops go both ways, between government and people.

5. Embrace continuous experimentation

In this new era of politics, volatility isn't just a challenge – it's an opportunity for experimentation and innovation. We ultimately don’t know what works and it’s a journey we’ll have to undertake together to figure out what might make up a new progressive playbook. It's this experimental attitude which is at the heart of Campaign Lab’s work.

We need to be willing to try new approaches while maintaining rigorous evaluation methods. This year we ran what may be the largest randomised control trial (RCT) ever conducted during an UK election. Running these RCTs aren't just about finding what works now – they're about building a culture of continuous learning and adaptation within progressive politics. Similarly, our hack days are about providing the space for our wider community of volunteers to build prototypes of what might be possible. Our work is about generating insights that are useful to the movement and providing the space to take risks that no single progressive actor can take alone.

And we aren’t alone in this work. At its heart Campaign Lab is part of a network of organisations experimenting, innovating and sharing. From The Analyst Institute and Higher Ground Labs in the US to the European Center for Digital Action, there are hubs of progressive learning dedicated to improving campaign practice across the world. As progressives, our greatest asset will be our ability to experiment, learn, create and share new methods as a movement.